Probability
1. Foundations
Set Theory & Axioms

Set Theory & Probability Axioms

Probability is built on the language of sets.

1. Sets and Events

  • Union (\cup): ABA \cup B means event A happens OR event B happens.
  • Intersection (\cap): ABA \cap B means event A AND event B happen simultaneously.
  • Mutually Exclusive: If AB=A \cap B = \emptyset, the events cannot happen together.

2. Counting Methods

  • Permutations: Order matters. P(n,r)=n!(nr)!P(n, r) = \frac{n!}{(n-r)!}
  • Combinations: Order does not matter. C(n,r)=(nr)=n!r!(nr)!C(n, r) = \binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!}

3. Kolmogorov's Axioms

  1. The probability of any event is non-negative: P(E)0P(E) \ge 0.
  2. The probability of the entire sample space is 1: P(Ω)=1P(\Omega) = 1.
  3. For mutually exclusive events, P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B).

Test Your Knowledge

Example: Union and Intersection

In a class of 50 students, 30 study Math (Set MM) and 25 study Physics (Set PP). If 10 students study both subjects, what is the probability that a randomly selected student studies Math OR Physics?

View Step-by-Step Solution

We use the inclusion-exclusion principle: P(MP)=P(M)+P(P)P(MP)P(M \cup P) = P(M) + P(P) - P(M \cap P)

First, convert to probabilities:

  • P(M)=30/50=0.60P(M) = 30 / 50 = 0.60
  • P(P)=25/50=0.50P(P) = 25 / 50 = 0.50
  • P(MP)=10/50=0.20P(M \cap P) = 10 / 50 = 0.20

P(MP)=0.60+0.500.20=0.90P(M \cup P) = 0.60 + 0.50 - 0.20 = 0.90 (or 90%)